Alar, Julião
Research Interests:
African Politics and Development Policy
Geographical Area:
Mozambique
Current Project:
Managing party loyalty in violent elections: Comparing the municipalities of Beira, Quelimane, and Tete in Mozambique
Studies on electoral violence estimate that about 19% of elections globally are violent. In Africa, violence occurs in about 50% of elections. Existing analyses tend to focus on the causes and consequences of electoral violence. While some scholars acknowledge that electoral violence negatively affects party loyalty (measured by the persistence of the electorate’s vote for the same party) and voter turnout, specific studies on party loyalty management in violent elections are almost non-existent. Other reflections on Africa stress that African parties are weakly organized and lack mobilizational capacity. Moreover, a single dominant party and small, weak opposition parties characterize African party systems.
In Mozambique, elections have been violent; nevertheless, turnout tends to increase in all municipal elections, and the main opposition parties (Renamo and MDM) have won persistently in certain municipalities. Based on this deviant trend in Mozambique, one might wonder how the disorganized parties with no mobilizational capacity, even more so in violent elections, manage to mobilize voters to the point that electoral participation tends to increase. Furthermore, how does the opposition (considered weak) win municipal elections in a dominant party system? Allied to this, how does Renamo (former group of “bandits”), the main opposition party, created by the minority regime of Ian Smith (from former Southern Rhodesia, now Zimbabwe) supported by the former Apartheid regime of South Africa, manage to attract and manage its loyalists? These questions flow into the following central question: How do political parties manage party loyalty in the context of violent elections?
Thus, from the analysis of party loyalty management in the municipalities of Beira, Quelimane (governed by the opposition), and Tete (under the control of the nationally ruling party), where elections have been violent and voter turnout increasing, it is proposed to contribute to the understanding of political parties in Africa. First, existing comparative reflections on political parties tend to consider the country as the unit of analysis. This study focuses on sub-national units (the municipalities), allowing to capture micro-dynamics of party functioning that have eluded macro-analysis. Second, the vast majority of existing studies tend to prioritize quantitative methods in data collection and analysis. This research will privilege focus group discussions and interviews with local political elites